Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
